[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 24 10:45:21 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Dec 25 Dec 26 Dec
Activity Low Low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 74/11 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Isolated B- and
C-class flares were observed today, the largest flare being
a C6.4 flare that peaked at 1017UT. Solar wind speed stayed
between 340 and 360 km/s whereas the Bz component of the IMF
ranged between approx. +/-3 nT for most part of the UT day
today. B-class and some some C-class flares may be observed
during the next two days. Solar activity is expected to stay
at low levels for the next two days and then at very low
levels on the third day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22121112
Darwin 4 11121112
Townsville 5 21121122
Learmonth 5 22121122
Canberra 1 11110001
Hobart 4 12121112
Casey(Ant) 12 33332223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Dec 2 Quiet
25 Dec 2 Quiet
26 Dec 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed
on most locations today. Similar conditions may be expected
for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal at low and mid
latitude locations and normal to fair at high latitudes
today. Strong sporadic E-layer influences were also observed
at low and some mid latitude locations. Similar HF conditions
may be expected for the next three days as no significant
variation is expected in the ionospheric conditions during
this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Dec 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of degradations
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Dec 2 near predicted monthly values
25 Dec 2 near predicted monthly values
26 Dec 2 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the
Aus/NZ region today. Similar conditions may be expected for
the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 28700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list