[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 22 10:48:04 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Dec 23 Dec 24 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 76/14 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Two C-class and several
B-class flares were observed during the day, the largest flare
being a C2.5 flare that peaked at 0717UT. Solar wind speed mostly
stayed between 320 and 350 km/s by around 2000UT and then increased
to 420 km/s by 2100UT. At the time of this report, solar wind
speed is around 360 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF ranged
between approx. +/-4 nT almost the whole day today. B-class
and some C-class flares may be observed during the next three
days with a minor possibility of isolated M-class flare. Solar
activity is expected to stay at low levels for the next three
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Mostly quiet, isolated
unsettled periods at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 21 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 12211122
Darwin 4 12110122
Townsville 5 22111122
Learmonth 5 12111222
Canberra 1 01110011
Hobart 3 02210022
Casey(Ant) 7 2-322122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Dec 3 Quiet
23 Dec 3 Quiet
24 Dec 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed on
most locations today. Similar conditions may be expected for
the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal to fair at low
and mid latitude locations and normal to poor at high latitudes
today. Strong sporadic E-layer influences were also observed
at low and some mid latitude locations. Similar HF conditions
may be expected for the next three days as no significant
variation is expected in the ionospheric conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Dec 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with periods of depressions and
degradations.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn with periods of degradations.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with periods of degradations.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with periods of degradations.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with periods of
depressions and
degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 20%.
23 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 20%.
24 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 20%.
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in MUFs were observed across
the Aus/NZ region today. Similar conditions may be expected for
the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 29100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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