[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 August 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 28 09:49:37 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug: Very Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The visible solar disc remains spotless. Solar wind speed increased
gradually over the UT day from 360km/s at 0000UT to be ~400km/s
at the time of this report. Solar activity is expected to be
Very Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 12112222
Darwin 5 11211222
Townsville 9 22222332
Learmonth - --------
Camden - --------
Canberra 3 01011221
Hobart 5 11112231
Casey(Ant) 7 23212222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 3121 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Aug 6 Quiet
29 Aug 5 Quiet
30 Aug 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Bz ranged between +/-5nT over the UT day. Mostly Quiet
conditions are expected for the next 3 days, with a chance of
Unsettled periods due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
29 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
30 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Aug -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Variable conditions during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Aug -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Aug -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Aug -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours. Depressed conditions again during local night for Equatorial
regions and notable sporadic-E. Depressed conditions during local
day for Northen AUS regions. Normal ionospheric support for Southern
AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions. Similar HF conditions are expected
for the next 3 days, with continued depressed periods for Equatorial
and Northern AUS regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 62100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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