[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 August 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 25 09:52:28 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug:  Very Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Aug             26 Aug             27 Aug
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
The visible solar disc remains spotless. Solar wind speed declined 
from 420km/s at 0000UT to be 360km/s at the time of this report. 
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               2   11110002
      Townsville           5   2-211122
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               2   11111101
      Casey(Ant)           4   22211110
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1320 0101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Aug     4    Quiet 
26 Aug     4    Quiet 
27 Aug     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours as solar wind speed declined. Bz fluctuated between
+/-1nT over the UT day. Quiet conditions are expected for 
the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Aug    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Aug    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
26 Aug    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
27 Aug    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24 
hours. Continued sporadic-E conditions observed for Equatorial 
regions with depressed periods during local night. Northern AUS 
regions depressed during local day and normal conditions for 
Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions. Expect mostly normal HF 
conditions next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 469 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    59100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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