[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 August 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 23 09:31:29 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Aug             24 Aug             25 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2
COMMENT: The visible solar disc is spotless. Solar wind speed 
remains elevated under the influence of a coronal hole wind stream 
but should decline today. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 22 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   13222122
      Darwin               6   13212022
      Townsville           8   23222222
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             2   02111011
      Hobart               6   23222111
      Casey(Ant)           8   23322122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville          11   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2132 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Aug     5    Quiet 
24 Aug     4    Quiet 
25 Aug     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remained steady at around 500 km/s. 
There was one significant period of southward IMF Bz early in 
the UT day leading to a period of unsettled geomagnetic conditions 
between 03-06UT. Otherwise the geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. 
There is a chance of isolated unsettled intervals on day one 
(23 Aug) as solar wind parameters remain mildly elevated. Conditions 
should decline to generally quiet days two and three. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Aug     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Extended periods of spread-F conditions observed at 
Niue, Norfolk Island and Brisbane, mainly local night. Also isolated 
periods Fs at Darwin. Extended periods of sporadic-E at Cocos 
Islands, with isolated periods at Darwin. Weak ionosphere local 
night S Ocean/Antarctic regions. Expect similar conditions next 
three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 512 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   149000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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