[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 August 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Aug             13 Aug             14 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: The visible solar disc is spotless. The solar wind speed 
ranged from 360 to 340 km/s and is expected to remain in this 
range or slightly above for the next 3 days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21211211
      Darwin               3   21110111
      Townsville           6   22211222
      Learmonth            5   212-----
      Canberra             1   11110100
      Hobart               4   11121211
      Casey(Ant)           4   12211211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   2000 1122     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Aug     4    Quiet 
13 Aug     4    Quiet 
14 Aug     4    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Aug    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Aug     1    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Aug     1    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Aug     1    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Brisbane observed spread F during the local night. Niue 
observed isolated cases of sporadic E (Es) through out the UT 
day, where as Cocos Island observed Es from dusk to local midnight 
and Norfolk Island observed Es during the local day. Expect Isolated 
cases of Es to continue for the next three days. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 372 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    39700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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