[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 April 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z APRIL 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 26 APRIL - 28 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Apr:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Apr             27 Apr             28 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain mildly elevated. The visible 
solar disk is spotless. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12111111
      Darwin               3   11111112
      Townsville           6   12222222
      Learmonth            2   11011111
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             1   02001000
      Hobart               1   01101001
      Casey(Ant)           5   13221111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden              NA
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2121 2121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Apr     3    Quiet 
27 Apr     3    Quiet 
28 Apr     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains mildly elevated at ~400 km/s. 
The IMF Bz fluctuations of the previous day have settled to
near-neutral values resulting in generally quiet geomagnetic 
conditions. Isolated unsettled intervals were observed at high 
latitudes only. Expect generally quiet conditions next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Apr     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Variable conditions during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Apr     3    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Apr     3    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Apr     3    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally normal to enhanced ionospheric conditions 
observed throughout the region following mild solar wind disturbance 
on Apr 24. Expect mostly normal conditions next three days with 
weak night-time ionosphere in Antarctic region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Apr
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:    79200 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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