[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 April 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z APRIL 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Apr             23 Apr             24 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speed is mildly elevated but is expected 
to decline over the next day. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12210011
      Darwin               2   11210011
      Townsville           6   22221122
      Learmonth            3   22120011
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             1   01110000
      Hobart               1   11110000
      Casey(Ant)           5   23211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden              NA
      Gnangara            15   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   2210 1201     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Apr     6    Quiet 
23 Apr     4    Quiet 
24 Apr     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Isolated unsettled periods observed at high latitudes. 
Chance of further isolated unsettled periods at high latitudes 
day one. Otherwise expect generally quiet geomagnetic conditions. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Apr     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Apr     3    Near predicted monthly values 
23 Apr     3    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Apr     3    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Variable depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions 
local day. Generally weak ionospheric conditions observed Antarctic 
region local night. Otherwise conditions mostly normal. Expect 
mostly normal conditions next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 444 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    65100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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