[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 April 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 9 09:47:42 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z APRIL 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Apr             10 Apr             11 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. Solar wind 
paramaters suggest the presence of a co-rotating interaction 
region (CIR) associated with the leading edge of the anticipated 
coronal hole wind stream during the latter half of the UT day 
of 8 April. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase to mild 
levels during 9 April and slowly decline into 10 April. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12211222
      Darwin               4   11111222
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            5   12212221
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             1   01100111
      Hobart               3   12101111
      Casey(Ant)           6   22212222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden              NA
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0011 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Apr    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled with the chance of 
                isolated active periods and possible minor storm 
                levels at high latitudes. 
10 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Apr     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Slightly elevated geomagnetic activity is expected 9 
April due to a coronal hole solar wind stream. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Apr     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15-30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Apr     5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
10 Apr     5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
11 Apr     0    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Isolated depressions of 15-30% were observed at times 
primarily during the local day across the Aus/NZ region, otherwise 
ionospheric conditions were mostly normal to enhanced during 
the past 24 hours. Isolated Spread-F/Sporadic-E conditions were 
also observed at times. Similar conditions are expected for the 
next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 372 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    48500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list