[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 April 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 7 09:41:30 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z APRIL 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Apr 08 Apr 09 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. Solar wind
speeds are expected to become mildly elevated during 9-10 April
as a small coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 12111211
Darwin 2 1111110-
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 12122200
Camden - --------
Canberra 1 01001101
Hobart 2 11101101
Casey(Ant) 4 12211211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden NA
Gnangara 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Apr 4 Quiet
08 Apr 4 Quiet
09 Apr 15 Mostly quiet to unsettled with the chance of
active periods and possible minor storm levels
at high latitudes.
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next 24-48
hours. Mildly elevated geomagnetic activity is expected 9 April
due to an anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Apr -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Apr 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
08 Apr 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
09 Apr 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Isolated depressions of 10-20% and Spread-F/Sporadic-E
conditions were observed at times across the Aus/NZ region, otherwise
ionospheric conditions were mostly normal during the past 24
hours. Similar conditions are expected for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 58700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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