[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 April 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 3 10:53:44 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z APRIL 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours as
the visible solar disc remains spotless. Solar wind velocity
declined from 360km/s at 0000UT to be ~320km/s at the time of
this report. Solar activity is expected to remain at Very Low
levels over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 2 21101101
Townsville 6 2221----
Learmonth 3 11111111
Camden - --------
Canberra 0 1000----
Hobart 0 00001100
Casey(Ant) 4 22211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden NA
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1001 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the
next 3 days with an expected increase in solar wind velocity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
04 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
05 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Apr 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values
04 Apr 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
05 Apr -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed for all regions over the
last 24 hours apart from depressed periods during local night
for Northern AUS regions and enhancements for Southern AUS/NZ
regions. Mostly normal ionospheric support is expected for the
next 24 hours. Possible depressed conditions for mid to high
latitudes on 04Apr-05Apr with disturbed conditions for high
latitudes due to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 49300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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