[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 30 09:10:04 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Sep 01 Oct 02 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is presently spotless. A high
speed coronal hole solar wind stream is expected to impact the
Earth mid way through the UT day of 30 September to 1 October.
Lasco imagery shows an expulsion of material commencing on the
west limb at approximately 1442 UT 29 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 12221001
Darwin 3 12211001
Townsville 6 12222122
Learmonth 2 01221000
Camden 2 11121001
Canberra 2 11221000
Hobart 2 01221100
Casey(Ant) 6 23-22011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0111 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Oct 35 Active to Minor storm
02 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 28 September
and is current for interval 29 September to 1 October. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to increase mid way through the UT day (30
September to 1 October) as a coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective
position. Active levels are likely during this period with minor
storm levels possible at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Oct Fair Fair Fair-Poor
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Sep 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Sep 2 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Noted sporadic E in the late night/early morning hours
at Vanimo between 15 UT and 19 UT. There is likely to be mild
depressions in the South Australian and Antarctic regions due
to geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 45900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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