[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 28 09:54:46 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Sep 29 Sep 30 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is presently spotless. There
was a very slight increase in solar wind speed and density and
small excursions in the IMF NS-component during the latter half
of the UT day of 27 September. A high speed coronal hole solar
wind stream is expected to impact the Earth late in the UT day
of 30 September to 1 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Darwin 2 11100112
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 3 11001221
Camden 1 10001101
Canberra 1 10000111
Hobart 1 11000111
Casey(Ant) 4 22210121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Sep 4 Quiet
29 Sep 4 Quiet
30 Sep 8 Mostly quiet with unsettled to active levels
and minor storm periods at high latitudes possible
late in the UT day.
COMMENT: Storm levels were observed at high latitudes only during
27 September in response to small variations in the solar wind
parameters during the latter half of the UT day. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected for the next few days. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to increase late in the UT day of 30 September to
1 October as a coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.
Active levels may be possible during this period with minor storm
levels possible at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Sep -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed greater than 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Sep -5 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
29 Sep -5 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
30 Sep -5 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild-strong depressions in MUFs were observed at times
for northern-equatorial regions, otherwise MUFs were mostly near
predicted monthly values during the past 24 hours. Similar HF
conditions are expected for the next few days, with isolated
depressions of 10-20% possible at times for northern-equatorial
regions only. Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions were observed
at times at some stations during the past 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 55900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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