[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 September 08

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 26 09:55:27 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Sep             27 Sep             28 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               67/0               66/0
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is presently spotless. Solar 
activity is expected to be at very low levels for the next few 
days. There was a slight increase in solar wind speed and density 
during the latter half of the UT day of 25 September. The IMF 
z-component also showed excursions of greater than -5nT. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11110122
      Darwin               3   11110122
      Townsville           6   22121222
      Learmonth            5   11110223
      Camden               2   01010121
      Canberra             2   11010121
      Hobart               3   11010122
      Casey(Ant)           8   23211133
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              4   1101 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Sep     5    Quiet 
27 Sep     4    Quiet 
28 Sep     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at mostly quiet levels 
during the past 24 hours, with an increase in activity observed 
for high latitudes only as the result of variations in the solar 
wind parameters observed during the latter half of the UT day 
of 25 September. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the 
next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Sep    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed 15-30% at times otherwise mostly
      near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15-30% at times otherwise mostly
      near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:   2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Sep     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
27 Sep     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
28 Sep     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: Mild depressions in MUFs were observed for
northern-equatorial 
regions, otherwise MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values 
during the past 24 hours. Similar HF conditions are expected 
for the next few days, with isolated depressions of 10-20% possible 
at times for northern-equatorial regions. Spread-F and Sporadic-E 
conditions were observed at times at some stations during the 
past 24 hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 293 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    33900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list