[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 25 09:41:14 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Sep 26 Sep 27 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels
for the next few days. Solar region 1002 is spotless. Solar wind
speeds have been predominantly below 300 km/s during the past
24 hours with the IMF z-component ranging between +/- 5nT. Similar
conditions are expected for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11112001
Darwin 2 11111001
Townsville 5 12222121
Learmonth 2 11112001
Camden 2 11012000
Canberra 2 11012000
Hobart 2 11012000
Casey(Ant) 7 33222111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0011 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Sep 3 Quiet
26 Sep 3 Quiet
27 Sep 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at quiet levels for 24
September and similar conditions are expected for the next few
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Sep -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Sep -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
26 Sep -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
27 Sep -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Mild depressions in MUFs were observed for
northern-equatorial regions, otherwise MUFs were mostly near
predicted monthly values for 24 September. Similar HF conditions
are expected for the next few days, with isolated depressions
of 15-30% possible at times for northern-equatorial regions.
Spread-F conditions were observed at times at some stations
during 24 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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