[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 September 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 20 09:19:10 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Sep             21 Sep             22 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on 19 September. 
The disc remains spotless. The solar wind speed remained 
between around 340 km/s and 360 km/s for most parts of the 
UT day today. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (BZ) fluctuated mostly between +/-3nT today, 
staying negative for relatively longer periods of time. Solar 
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the 
next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11212121
      Darwin               -   --------
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Camden               3   11112111
      Canberra             3   10112121
      Hobart               5   11222121
      Casey(Ant)           7   23311121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Sep : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs       NA
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9   1233 3101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Sep     3    Quiet 
21 Sep     3    Quiet 
22 Sep     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quite 
levels today and similar conditions may be expected for the 
next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for most 
locations for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Sep   -11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Irregular periods of MUF depressions and enhancements
      observed alonwith periods of minor to moderate
      degradations in HF conditions. 

Predicted Monthly T index for September:   2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values 
22 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected in most 
parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 381 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    35100 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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