[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 13 09:05:04 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar wind speed ranged between 340-400 km/s over the
last 24 hrs and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field was mostly northward and ranging between +3/-2 nT. A recurrent
coronal hole is visible on SOHO EIT-195 and STEREO-B imagery
and expected to be geoeffective 14th Sept. As a result the solar
wind is expected to increase to just over 600 km/s. Solar activity
is expected to remain at the Very Low level for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Darwin 2 12110010
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 0 11000000
Camden 0 11000000
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 0 10000001
Casey(Ant) 5 33211000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0100 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Sep 24 active
15 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Due to an increase in solar wind speed there is expected
to be an increase in geomagnetic activity on 14 and 15 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Sep 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Sep 5 near predicted monthly values
14 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values
15 Sep -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect degraded HF conditions in the antarctic and southern
Australian regions on 14 and 15 September due to geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 51400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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