[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 11 09:47:55 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at the Very Low level today.
The solar disk continued to remain spotless. Solar wind speed
decreased further from 480 to 430km/sec, approaching average
values albeit with some turbulence. IMF Bz was both north-south
with no extended southward periods. A sharp phi and Vsw step
at 21UT may have caused polar geomagnetic disturbances seen in
the last 4 hours. A recurrent coronal hole is visible on SOHO
EIT 195 and STEREO-B imagery and expected to be geoeffective
Low level for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 22211111
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 22201121
Camden 2 12110110
Canberra 2 12110110
Hobart 2 12111100
Casey(Ant) 8 23311222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1221 0113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Sep 4 Quiet
12 Sep 4 Quiet
13 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: The Geomagnetic field remained Quiet at mid and low
latitudes. Polar latitudes were at Quiet to Unsettled levels,
with Storm conditions at the end of the UT day possibly due to
a solar wind and IMF step (Vsw, phi) at ~21UT. Effects from this
should subside early on the 11th and not become global. Geomagnetic
activity should remain at Quiet levels over the next 2-3 days.
A recurrent coronal hole is visible on SOHO EIT 195 and STEREO-B
imagery and expected to be geoeffective ~14th Sept.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Recent equatorial disturbances evident. See Australasian
region summary.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Sep 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Sep 1 about 5% below predicted monthly values
12 Sep 1 Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep -3 about 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF values across Australian/NZ regions were again slightly
below average at mid-latitudes, mainly due to the lack of sunpots
and corresponding EUV radiation, which would speed recovery of
the ionosphere from the geomagnetic supression by the recent
solar coronal hole. There were again both large depressions and
enhancements at equatorial latitudes (Cocos Is, Vanimo, Niue).
Sub-equatorial sites (Darwin, Learmonth) also had the same pattern
but weaker and some daytime spread F.There was again a slight
dusk/night depletion across mid-latitudes. Conditions are expected
to be normal to slightly depressed compared with predicted monthly
T values for the next 2-3 days and a recurrent coronal hole should
take effect ~14th Sept, increasing geomag activity and decreasing
MUFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 497 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 64200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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