[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 September 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 8 09:43:08 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Sep             09 Sep             10 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    66/0               66/0               66/0
COMMENT: As anticipated, solar activity remained at very 
low level today as well. The solar disk continued to remain 
spotless. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 640 
km/s to around 540 km/s over the UT day today. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) stayed 
between +/-4nT for most parts of the UT day today, staying 
positive for relatively longer periods of time. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next three 
days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22213131
      Darwin               6   22113130
      Townsville           8   22223231
      Learmonth           10   2221324-
      Camden               7   22213130
      Canberra             7   22213130
      Hobart               7   22213131
      Casey(Ant)          11   333232-2
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Gnangara            47   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              30   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   3101 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Sep     5    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible. 
09 Sep     4    Quiet 
10 Sep     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually decline 
over the next two days as the currently going on coronal hole 
effect weakens further. Mostly quiet conditions are expected 
for the next three days with some possibility of isolated 
unsettled periods on 08 September. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        
10 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: As anticipated, minor to significant degradations 
in HF conditions were observed at high latitudes over the 
last 24 hours. Minor to mild degradations in conditions and 
depressions in MUFs may be expected on high latitudes on 08 
September. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for most 
locations on 09 and 10 September. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Sep    -0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Irregular periods of enhancements, depressions and
      minor to significant degradations observed. 

Predicted Monthly T index for September:   2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Sep     2    near predicted monthly values 
09 Sep     3    near predicted monthly values 
10 Sep     3    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions across Australian/NZ regions are expected 
to stay mostly at normal levels for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 540 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:   143000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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