[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 September 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 5 09:53:05 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep:  66/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Sep             06 Sep             07 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    66/0               66/0               66/0
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. The solar wind went up 
from 470 to 600 km/s by 1800UT and then gradually decreased 
to 550 km/s by around 2330UT. The Bz component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field was mostly southwards (upto 
around -10nT) by 0400UT and then showed fluctuations between 
approximately +/-7nT until around 1000UT and then gradually 
settled close to the normal value. The currently going on 
coronal hole effect is expected to keep the solar wind stream 
strengthened for the next two days. Expect solar activity to 
remain very low for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Quiet to minor storm
with isolated periods of major storms recorded 
at some high latitude locations. 

Estimated Indices 04 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   44433321
      Darwin              16   44333322
      Townsville          20   44434332
      Learmonth           22   55334321
      Camden              22   44544321
      Canberra            22   4454-321
      Hobart              18   3453-321
      Casey(Ant)          16   44432322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              43   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   1222 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Sep    16    active 
06 Sep    12    Unsettled 
07 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 3 September 
and is current for interval 4-5 September. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected remain elevated for the next two days due to the 
effect of the high speed solar wind stream from the recurrent 
coronal hole. Mostly active conditions on 05 and unsettled conditions 
on 06 September are expected. Activity level is expected to decline 
to mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods on 07 September. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Sep      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair     
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and depressions 
in MUFs may be expected on low and mid latitudes for the next 
two days with the expectations of minor to significant degradations 
and depressions on high latitudes during this period. HF conditions 
are expected to return to mostly normal conditions on most locations 
on the third day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Sep     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Irregular periods of enhancement, depressions and
      degradations observed. 

Predicted Monthly T index for September:   2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Sep    -5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
06 Sep    -2    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
07 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Expect minor to mild MUF depressions in MUFs and degradations

in HF conditions across Aus/NZ regions on 05 September. Conditions 
are expected to remain mostly normal for the following two days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 437 km/sec  Density:   10.1 p/cc  Temp:    58900 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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