[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 October 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 14 10:57:24 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Oct             15 Oct             16 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               73/9               75/13
COMMENT: Sunspot region AR1005 remains the only significant feature 
on the visible solar disk. Solar wind speed declined slowly over 
the UT day. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22222111
      Darwin               5   22221112
      Townsville           8   23222222
      Learmonth            7   22222222
      Camden               4   12221011
      Canberra             6   22231111
      Hobart               7   22332111
      Casey(Ant)           9   33322221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               4   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13   4333 3223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Oct     6    Quiet 
16 Oct     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated 
unsettled periods at low to mid latitudes and isolated active 
periods at high latitudes. Solar wind parameters declined slowly 
over the UT day and are expected to continue to decline over 
the next day. Expect mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions next 
three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Oct   -30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 25% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
     Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:   2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Oct    -5    5 to 15% below predicted monthly values 
15 Oct     0    0 to 10% below predicted monthly values 
16 Oct     0    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Substantial depressions of 20% observed in HF critical 
frequencies observed across Aus/NZ and nearby equatorial regions. 
Variable conditions observed at low latitudes. Expect gradual 
recovery next three days with continuing variability at low latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 526 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   147000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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