[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 November 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 27 10:06:55 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Nov 28 Nov 29 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Very low solar activity over the last 24 hours. The
visible solar disk is spotless. A recurrent coronal hole wind
stream maintains solar wind speed at an elevated level near 600km/s.
Elevated solar wind speed expected next 2-3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled.
Minor Storms at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 33312222
Darwin 9 23312223
Townsville 12 33322332
Learmonth 11 32323322
Camden 9 33312222
Canberra 11 33412222
Hobart 11 33412222
Casey(Ant) 14 4---3232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 3332 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Nov 5 Quiet
29 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed 26
Nov with an isolated Active period around 0700UT and some Minor
Storm periods at high latitudes. Expect Quiet- Unsettled conditions
27 Nov with some isolated Active periods possible at high latitudes.
A return to Quiet conditions expected 28 Nov as the coronal hole
wind stream subsides.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal Fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Nov -30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Nov -35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
28 Nov -35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
29 Nov -40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Continuing depressed ionospheric conditions expected
due to very low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 568 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 217000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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