[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 November 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 4 10:28:09 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov: Low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Region 1007 produced a C1.6 flare at 1119 UT. A faint CME
was observed erupting from the north-west limb around 0154 UT and
may be associated with region 1007. The solar wind speed has ranged
between approximately 380 and 440 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 21110112
Darwin 2 11100112
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 2 21000102
Camden 1 11000011
Canberra 1 10000111
Hobart 2 11110111
Casey(Ant) 8 3-321122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0001 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Nov 5 Quiet
05 Nov 5 Quiet
06 Nov 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The effects of a recurrent coronal hole are expected
to increase activity late on the 6 November or on the 7 November.
It is uncertain whether there will be any effect due to the coronal
mass ejection (CME).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Poor-fair Poor-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Fair Fair Normal
05 Nov Fair Fair Normal
06 Nov Fair Fair Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Nov -25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Frequencies at Niue were near predicted with
depressions to 50% at times 03-04, 07-11 and 14-21 UT.
Frequencies at Vanimo were near predicted with
depressions to 30% 14-16, 20 and 22 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted with depressions to 30% 03-05 and 09-21
UT (Cocos Is.), 11-19 UT (Brisbane/Townsville). No
Darwin data.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted with depressions to 30%, 02-05 and 10-17
UT (Norfolk Is.), 00-16 UT (Canberra/Hobart), 02, 11-14
UT (Christchurch) and 00-05, 13-21 UT (Learmonth).
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values with depressions.
Deeper depressions likely at lower latitudes.
05 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values with depressions.
Deeper depressions likely at lower latitudes.
06 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values with depressions.
Deeper depressions likely at lower latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 65100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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