[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 May 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 31 09:42:34 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 May 01 Jun 02 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: The visible disk is presently spotless. Solar wind speeds
ranged from approximately 470 km/s up to 670 km/s during the
past 24 hours under the influence of a coronal hole wind stream
and are presently approximately 550 km/s. Solar wind speeds are
expected to remain mildly elevated over the next couple of days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 May : A K
Australian Region 8 32222321
Darwin 7 22212321
Townsville 9 32222322
Learmonth 10 31223332
Camden 6 21112321
Canberra 7 31112321
Hobart 6 -1122321
Casey(Ant) 14 33323342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 14 (Quiet)
Camden 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 62 (Active)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 54 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 3321 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 May 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled with the small chance
of isolated active periods and storm levels at
high latitudes.
01 Jun 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled with the small chance
of isolated active periods and storm levels at
high latitudes.
02 Jun 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled levels have been observed
across the Australian region during the past 24 hours with isolated
active to storm levels at high latitudes. Mostly quiet to unsettled
levels are expected for the next few days with isolated active
and storm levels possible at high latitudes for 31 May - 1 June
due to the influence of a coronal hole solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 May 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 May 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
01 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
02 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions of 5-15% were observed at times across the
Aus/NZ region, otherwise MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly
values during the past 24 hours. Mostly normal conditions are
expected for the next few days with isolated depressions of 5-15%
possible at times. Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions were observed
at times at most stations across the Aus/NZ region during 30
May and are possible at times during the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May
Speed: 474 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 100000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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