[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 May 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 21 09:49:56 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 May 22 May 23 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last
24 hours. The anticipated effect of the coronal hole seems
to have started around mid-day today as the solar wind speed
gradually increased from 360 km around 1200UT to 500 km/s by
2300 UT. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) remained between +5 and -5 nT for most part of
the UT day today. Solar wind stream is expected to get further
strengthened on 21 May due to the effect of this coronal hole.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for
the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 May : A K
Australian Region 8 22223222
Darwin 6 22222212
Townsville 8 22322222
Learmonth 10 22323232
Camden 7 12213222
Canberra 7 12223222
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 9 23222223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 6 (Quiet)
Gnangara 70 (Active)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 3213 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 May 23 Mostly unsettled to active, isolated minor storm
periods possible.
22 May 15 Mostly unsettled, some active periods possible.
23 May 8 Quiet to unsettled.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from
unsettled to active levels on 21 May with some possibility
of isolated minor storm periods due to an anticipated strengthning
of the solar wind stream on this day. The geomagnetic conditions
are expected to gradually decline to active to unsettled
levels on 22 May and unsettled to quiet levels on 23 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
22 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs may be observed at high and some
mid latitude locations on 21 May due to an anticipated rise
in geomagnetic activity on this day. Minor degradations and
depressions may also be possible at these latitudes on 22 May
as well.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 May 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values for most part of the day
with enhancements upto 45% at times on some
locations.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 May 6 near predicted monthly values/depressed 05 to
20%
22 May 7 near predicted monthly values/depressed 05 to
10%
23 May 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and depressions
in MUFs may be observed, especially in the Southern Aus/NZ regions
on 21 and at times on 22 May due to an anticipated rise in the
geomagnetic activity on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 7.7 p/cc Temp: 78600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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