[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 May 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 May             15 May             16 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. Solar wind velocity 
rose to just above 400 km/s and then returned to approximately 
350km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary went to -5 nT 
the first 3 hours of the UT day (13 May) and returned to +/- 
2nT for the rest of the UT day. No spots presently visible on 
the solar disk at this time, however there is a active region 
on the east limb rotating onto the solar disk that GOES 10 shows 
to have likely caused several low level xray flares. As this 
region rotates onto the earthside of the sun there is a slight 
chance for a C-class xray flare. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12112111
      Darwin               3   22011111
      Townsville           8   23222222
      Learmonth            4   12112120
      Camden               2   12001010
      Canberra             2   12001010
      Hobart               4   12112111
      Casey(Ant)           6   23212111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1010 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 May     4    Quiet 
15 May     4    Quiet 
16 May     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: There was a short period of unsettled conditions early 
in the UT day after the BZ component of the IMF went southward. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 May     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 May     5    Near predicted monthly values 
15 May     5    Near predicted monthly values 
16 May     5    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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