[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 26 10:31:53 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/1F 1856UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate today. A new region
989(S10E77) produced an M1.7 flare associated with a
Type II radio burst. Regions 987(S08E23) and 988(S09E47)
grew in area and spot number over the last 24 hours. The
previously anticipated coronal hole effect has not eventuated
yet as solar wind speed gradually decreased from 420 to
380 km/s by 2300UT today. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic fields (Bz) stayed slightly positive
for most part of first half of the UT day today and showed
minor fluctuations on both sides of the normal value during
the second half. Solar wind stream is expected to get
strengthened due to an anticipated effect of a recurrent
coronal hole. The recurrent pattern of the last three
rotations shows this coronal hole to be increasing in
strength. Solar activity is expected to remain mostly at
low to moderate levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 22211112
Darwin 4 22111111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 12111211
Camden 3 ---11111
Canberra 3 11111112
Hobart 3 11111112
Casey(Ant) 7 23321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1110 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Mar 18 Unsettled to active
27 Mar 25 Active
28 Mar 18 Active to unsettled.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 23 March
and is current for interval 25-28 March. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to gradually increase to unsettled and then to
active levels on 26 and 27 March for most locations due to
the anticipated strengthening in the solar wind stream on
these days. Minor storm periods may also be observed at high
and some mid latidue locations at times on 26 and 27 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
27 Mar Fair Fair Fair-Poor
28 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be expected, especially on high and
mid latitudes on 26 and 27 March and at times on 28 March
due to an anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity levels
on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Mar 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Mar 0 Depressed 5 to 20%.
27 Mar 0 Depressed 5 to 20%.
28 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs may be expected on 26 and 27 March,
especially across Southern Aus/NZ regions due to an anticipated
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 451 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 66100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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