[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 March 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 10 10:08:07 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Mar             11 Mar             12 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours, 
expected to continue at Very Low levels. Solar wind speeds remain 
elevated due to a high speed coronal hole wind stream, currently 
near 700km/s. Some very large fluctuations in the IMF produced 
periods of sustained southward IMF, particularly 02-04UT. The 
size of the coronal hole and recurrence suggests elevated solar 
wind speeds can be expected for the next 5-6 days however the 
IMF fluctuations should decrease resulting in less geoeffective 
conditions. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: Unsettled with an
Minor Storm period. 

Estimated Indices 09 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      20   34543232
      Darwin              15   34433222
      Townsville          19   34443333
      Learmonth           21   34543332
      Camden              19   34543222
      Canberra            19   34543222
      Hobart              22   34544233
      Casey(Ant)          24   45533333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              30   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             11   0011 4431     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Mar    12    Unsettled 
11 Mar    12    Unsettled 
12 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Unsettled with a Minor 
Storm period ~03-10UT resulting from a period of sustained strongly 
southward IMF within the present coronal hole wind stream. The 
high latitudes experienced Major storm conditions. The coronal 
hole is likely to produce further Unsettled conditions next three 
days (10-12 March) with isolated Active periods. Minor storm 
conditions likely at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Mar    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Mar    -5    near predicted monthly values / depressed by 
                up to 20% 
11 Mar   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
12 Mar    -5    near predicted monthly values / depressed by 
                up to 20% 

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the UT day. Some strong MUF enhancements occurred in the N.Aus 
and S.Aus/sub-Antarctic regions ~03-09UT coincident with minor 
geomagnetic storm conditions. Some degradation of HF propagation 
conditions was observed. Expect MUF depressions 10-12 March but 
otherwise mostly normal HF conditions. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed: 383 km/sec  Density:   12.2 p/cc  Temp:    75800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list