[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 June 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 24 09:40:34 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun: 65/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jun 25 Jun 26 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 65/0 65/0 65/0
COMMENT: Solar activity Very Low over the last 24 hours and expected
to continue at that level for next 3 days. Region 999 is stable
with simple Alpha magnetic configuration and unlikely to significantly
flare. Solar wind decreased from slightly elevated 400km/s to
quiescent 340 km/s over 24hrs. Interplanetary Magnetic Field
(IMF) was not strongly variable and a stable northward Bz condition
prevailed from 12-22UT, switching off merging with the geomagnetic
field. A weak recurrent coronal hole is expected to move into
geoeffective position 24 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Darwin 2 12111001
Townsville 6 22222112
Learmonth 2 21111000
Camden 1 11111000
Canberra 2 11121000
Hobart 2 11122000
Casey(Ant) 4 22211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1100 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jun 6 Quiet
25 Jun 6 Quiet
26 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours,
and expected to so continue today (24 Jun). A recurrent coronal
hole wind stream may cause Quiet-Unsettled conditions days 2-3
(25-26 Jun) although the SOHO spacecraft imagery does not show
a significant coronal hole on this rotation.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jun -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jun 0 about 10% below predicted monthly values
25 Jun 0 about 10% below predicted monthly values
26 Jun 4 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australasian region ionosphere was mostly normal over
the UT day. Spread-F was prevalent in the north at near and
sub-equatorial
latitudes and at night at many mid-latitude stations. There were
sharp pre-dusk MUF enhancements followed by shallow night depressions
in the Equatorial/N.Aus region although on average MUFs were
down by 15% in this region. MUFs in the S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions
were mostly near or above predicted monthly values. Expect mostly
normal HF conditions with MUFs slightly below monthly values
24 and 25 Jun. A predicted small solar coronal hole (see geomagnetic
section) may slightly enhance conditions on the 26th.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 63000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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