[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 June 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 21 09:08:32 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun: 65/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 65/0 65/0 65/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours,
expected to continue next 3 days.A small enhancement of the waning
coronal hole wind stream pushed solar wind speeds back up towards
600km/s early in the UT day along with some large IMF Bz fluctuations
however the wind stream is again in decline.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 23322111
Darwin 11 232---3-
Townsville 10 233---1-
Learmonth 8 23323111
Camden 6 23222111
Canberra 7 23322111
Hobart 5 12322110
Casey(Ant) 9 33322221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Camden 6 (Quiet)
Gnangara 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2111 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jun 5 Quiet
22 Jun 3 Quiet
23 Jun 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet over the last
24 hours. A small enhancement of the waning coronal hole wind
stream produced a period of mostly Unsettled conditions 03-09UT
(20 Jun). Expect Quiet conditions next 3 days (21-23 Jun).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jun 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values
22 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values
23 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The Australian ionosphere was fair to normal over the
UT day. MUFs were near predicted monthly values. HF conditions
were normal in N.Aus/equatorial regions. Some range spread-F
was seen at S.Aus/NZ sites particularly overnight, as well as
some intervals of sporadic-E. The Antarctic region saw slightly
degraded HF conditions compared to normal. Expect mostly normal
HF conditions with MUFs near predicted monthly values next 3
days (21-23 Jun).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed: 535 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 88600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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