[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 June 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 19 09:03:42 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun: 65/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours,
expected to continue next 3 days. Solar wind speed remains elevated,
near 600km/s, due to a recurrent coronal hole. Solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated for the next 2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A K
Australian Region 8 23332111
Darwin 5 22222111
Townsville 11 33332222
Learmonth 9 33332101
Camden 7 23232011
Canberra 7 23332100
Hobart 9 23333111
Casey(Ant) 11 34323121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Camden 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 3232 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were generally Quiet to Unsettled
over the last 24 hours. The effects of a recurrent coronal hole
are waning. Expect Quiet - Unsettled conditions to persist 19-20
Jun with a return to Quiet conditions 21 June. The high latitude
regions may see some isolated Active to Minor Storm periods 19
Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
20 Jun Normal Normal Fair
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jun 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values
20 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values
21 Jun -5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The Australian ionosphere was mostly normal over the
UT day. MUFs were near predicted monthly values. HF conditions
were fair-normal with the exception of the Antarctic region which
saw some significant degradation as a result of enhanced high
latitude activity. Range Spread-F was again observed in the S.Aus/NZ
region overnight as well as isolated sporadic-E at mid-latitudes.
Expect mostly normal HF conditions with MUFs near predicted monthly
values 19 Jun, and continuing poor ionospheric support in Antarctic
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 704 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 283000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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