[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 July 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 30 09:35:39 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul:  66/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jul             31 Jul             01 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    66/0               66/0               66/0

COMMENT: Very low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar 
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next 
3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            2   11001111
      Camden               1   01011000
      Canberra             1   00011100
      Hobart               1   01111100
      Casey(Ant)           4   12211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   3331 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jul     5    Quiet 
31 Jul     6    Quiet 
01 Aug     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Expect mostly quiet conditions over the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 Jul    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jul     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
31 Jul     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
01 Aug     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24 
hours. Depressed periods during local day for Northern AUS/Equatorial 
regions. Normal conditions for Southern AUS/NZ regions with continued 
enhancements during local night. Slightly enhanced conditons 
in the antarctic region, however, periods without a trace were 
noted on some ionograms. Expect similar conditions for the next 
3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: 441 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    91300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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