[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 July 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 19 09:39:02 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jul             20 Jul             21 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    66/0               66/0               66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to stay at very low 
levels today as well. The  solar wind speed gradually 
decreased  from 450 to 350 km/s over the UT day today 
and  the  north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (Bz) stayed close to the normal value. 
New region 1000 (S13E23) has been numbered today. Solar 
activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the 
next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12212011
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Townsville           6   22222122
      Learmonth            3   2--22000
      Camden               2   11112000
      Canberra             2   01212000
      Hobart               3   01212002
      Casey(Ant)           6   23222111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           20   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   2211 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jul     5    Quiet 
20 Jul     5    Quiet 
21 Jul     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions have been 
observed during the last 24 hours and is expected to 
continue to stay at similar levels for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
20 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
21 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Minor degradations and MUF depressions were 
observed at times on low latitudes during the last 24 
hours, possibly due to a weak ionosphere as the solar 
activity continues to stay at very low levels. Mid-latidute 
circuits remained less affected by this phenomenon and 
the conditions remained mostly normal, but the high 
latitudes showed minor to moderate degradations in conditions 
at some circuites for extended periods of time today. 
Similar HF conditions may be expected for the next three 
days as no significant variations to the ionospheric 
conditions are expected during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
18 Jul     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day with
      some periods of minor depressions. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values during local day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Periods of some MUF enhancements and depressions 
      with minor to moderate degradations. 

Predicted Monthly T index for July:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jul     2    near predicted monthly values 
20 Jul     2    near predicted monthly values 
21 Jul     2    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most parts of Aus/NZ region for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 486 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    68000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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