[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 July 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 6 09:34:59 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul:  65/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jul             07 Jul             08 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    66/0               66/0               66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels for the 
last 24 hours and the disc is spotless. The solar wind speed 
stayed close to 330 km/s until around 1000UT and then rose 
to 400 km/s by 1200UT and stayed between 400 and 420 km/s 
during the remaining part of the day. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) stayed positive upto 
around +5nT for most part of the day, but stayed negative upto 
around -7nT between 0700 and 1200UT. Solar activity is expected 
to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Mostly quiet, some
unsettled periods observed. 

Estimated Indices 05 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22132111
      Darwin               -   --------
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth            7   22132122
      Camden               6   22132111
      Canberra             4   11032111
      Hobart               4   11032111
      Casey(Ant)           7   22132122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs       NA
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1101 2212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jul     5    Quiet 
07 Jul     5    Quiet 
08 Jul     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels 
today. Some unsttled periods were observed mainly between 
0800UT and 1200UT when Bz stayed southwards. Geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to remain mostly at quiet levels 
for the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
07 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
08 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal on most 
locations today with some depressions in MUFs and minor 
to significant degradations at times mainly on some low 
and high latitude stations possibly due to continued very 
low solar activity. Mid-latidues were not that adversely 
affected. Spread F and sporadic E were also noticed on some 
low latitude stations. Nearly similar HF conditions may be 
expected for the next 3 days as no significant ionospheric 
variations are expected during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Jul    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with periods of
      depressions, enhancements and degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jul    -3    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
07 Jul    -3    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
08 Jul    -3    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: HF conditions in most parts of Austalian/NZ regions 
were mostly near normal with periods of MUF depressions and
degradations in HF conditions possibly due to a weaker 
ionosphere due to continued very low solar activity. Nearly 
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next three days 
as no significant variations are expected in the ionospheric 
conditions during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 318 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    26100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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