[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 July 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 3 09:38:26 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul:  66/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jul             04 Jul             05 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    66/0               66/0               66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels for the 
last 24 hours and the disc is spotless. The solar wind speed 
gradually decreased from 410 km/s to 340 km/s over the UT day 
today. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz) remained close to the normal value almost the whole 
day today. Solar acivity is expected to remain at very low 
levels for the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111001
      Darwin               2   11111001
      Townsville           6   22222112
      Learmonth            1   11110000
      Camden               0   01000000
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               0   10010000
      Casey(Ant)           4   12211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   2221 2102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jul     5    Quiet 
04 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible. 
05 Jul     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels today 
and are expected to remain mostly at similar levels for the 
next 3 days  with some  possibility of isolated unsettled 
conditions on 04 July. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal on most 
locations today with some depressions in MUFs and minor 
to significant degradations at times on some low and high 
latitude stations possibly due to a weaker ionosphere due 
to continued very low solar activity. Nearly similar HF 
conditions may be expected for the next 3 days as no 
significant ionospheric variations are expected during 
this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Jul    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with periods of MUF
      depressions and minor to significant degradations in
      HF conditions.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted montly values with periods of MUF
      depressions and minor to significant degradations in
      HF conditions. 

Predicted Monthly T index for July:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jul    -2    near predicted monthly values 
04 Jul    -2    near predicted monthly values 
05 Jul    -2    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions in most parts of Austalian/NZ 
regions were mostly normal with periods of MUF depressions 
and degradations in HF conditions possibly due to a weaker 
ionosphere due to continued very low solar activity. Nearly 
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next three 
days as 'not much variation' is expected in the ionospheric 
conditins during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 440 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    69800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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