[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 January 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 21 10:45:10 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jan             22 Jan             23 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar disc currently spotless and solar activity expected 
to be very low. Recurrent coronal hole has mostly dissipated 
and the segments at geoeffective latitudes have rotated over 
the limb. Vsw steadily decreased from 660 to 560 km/sec over 
the UT day. Vsw should reuturn to normal in a day or two.
Interplanetery 
Magnetic Field Bz oscillated north-south with no southward period 
much over 2 hours. However By was greater than Bz early and late 
in the UT day, conducive to IMF-geomagnetic merging. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 20 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   12322122
      Darwin               6   12222122
      Townsville           9   23322222
      Learmonth            6   12222122
      Camden               6   22312121
      Canberra             -   --------
      Hobart               5   02312111
      Casey(Ant)          10   ---33222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   1133 3312     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jan     5    Quiet 
22 Jan     5    Quiet 
23 Jan     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet with only a few Unsettled 
periods over the 24 hrs at mid and equatorial latitudes. The 
effect of the recurrent coronal hole has virtually passed. Field 
should be mainly Quiet in the next 3 days unless significant 
duration IMF-geomagnetic merging occurs. Polar latitudes had 
active to Minor/Major Storm conditions at some stations, early 
and late in the UT day, caused by enhanced IMF-geomagnetic merging 
due to IMF By exceeding Bz in magnitude. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions expected to return 
to normal over next 3 days as recurrent coronal hole effect is 
removed. MUFs may be slow to recover due to lack of sunspots 
and ionising radiation. Some spread F may be expected to linger. 
Polar latitude recovery will depend on the amount of polar cap 
convection caused by IMF-geomagnetic field merging with extended 
Bz south or high By values. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Jan     0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jan     0    Below monthly values by (day/night); 5/10% for 
                northern Australia; 5/5% for southern Australia; 
                5/10% for equatorial; 0/0% for Antarctica. 
22 Jan     5    Below monthly values by (day/night); 0/5% for 
                northern Australia; 0/5% for southern Australia; 
                0/5% for equatorial; 0/0% for Antarctica. 
23 Jan     5    Below monthly values by (day/night); 0/5% for 
                northern Australia; 0/5% for southern Australia; 
                0/5% for equatorial; 0/0% for Antarctica. 
COMMENT: Extensive spread F again widely observed at all latitudes, 
but paticularly equatorial. Sporadic E (Es) also widespread. 
HF conditions and MUFs are expected slowly normal across most 
part of the Aus/NZ regions over the next three days. Recovery 
will be slow due to lack of sunspot activity and MUFs should 
remain slightly below monthly averages. At equatorial latitudes 
the typical delayed post geomagnetic disturbance (from coronal 
hole) enhancements or depressions in MUF near dawn or dusk may 
occur. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 626 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   183000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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