[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 19 10:43:13 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels on 18
January. The effect of the coronal hole, that is currently
in geoeffective position, is expected to continue on 19 January,
although it is likely to be experienced intermittenly due
to the shape of the coronal hole. The solar wind speed
gradually decreased from 720 km/s at 0400UT to nearly 600 km/s
by 2300UT today. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) remained close to the normal value with
minor fluctuations on both sides of the normal value almost
the whole UTday today. Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 32223322
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 9 22223322
Learmonth 12 32323422
Camden 8 22222322
Canberra - --------
Hobart 10 23223322
Casey(Ant) 16 4--43322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 47 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 3112 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jan 6 Quiet
21 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly
at quiet to unsettled levels on 19 January due to some possible
effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole
that is now moving out of the geoeffecive position. Geomagnetic
activity is then expected to gradually decline to mostly quiet
levels for the following two days i.e. on 20 and 21 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations for the next three days with some possibility
of minor degradations in HF conditions and minor depressions
in MUFs on 19 January at high latitudes due to some possible
enhancement in geomagnetic activity levels on this day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jan -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
20 Jan 1 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jan 1 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions and MUFs are expected to remain mostly
normal across most part of the Aus/NZ regions for the next
three days with some possibility of minor degradations in
conditions and minor depressions in MUFs at times on 19 January
at some southern Aus/NZ circuits due to some possible
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on this day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: 629 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 174000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list