[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 13 10:17:59 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 70/5
COMMENT: The solar wind is presently at approximately 480 km/s
and is expected to rise during the UT day to approximately 600km/s.
The interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated mostly between +/-5nT,
however between 14 and 16UT 12 Jan Bz dipped to -8nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 22213322
Darwin 8 22213322
Townsville 9 22223322
Learmonth 10 22223332
Camden 9 12213323
Canberra 8 11213323
Hobart 7 12212313
Casey(Ant) 13 3-423322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1011 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jan 20 active
14 Jan 17 active
15 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 11 January and
is current for interval 13-14 January. The geomagnetic field
is expected to become disturbed today and tomorrow due to the
effects of a high speed solar wind stream induced by a coronal
hole. Expect isolated cases of minor storm activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
14 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jan -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jan -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Jan -30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
15 Jan -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 11 January
and is current for interval 14-15 January. Brisbane, Hobart,
Nuie, Norfolk Is., Townsville and Sydney all showed cases of
sporadic E thoughout the UT day 12 January. Vanimo and Darwin
showed sporadic E during the evening/night time hours and Macquarie
Is. showed sporadic E in the early morning hours. Expect isolated
cases of sporadic E to continue. Mild depressions are likely
to occur over the next three days due to expected geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 70500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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