[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 February 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Feb             26 Feb             27 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. Minor radio 
noise observed on Culgoora solar spectrograph 0450-0525UT. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22211111
      Darwin               3   2111111-
      Townsville           7   2222222-
      Learmonth            3   11111112
      Camden               3   12111111
      Canberra             3   12111111
      Hobart               3   11211111
      Casey(Ant)           9   33322221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              32   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   0010 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Feb     4    Quiet 
26 Feb     4    Quiet 
27 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was generally quiet. Isolated 
unsettled periods observed at high latitudes only. Expect mosty 
quiet conditions days one and two. Recurrence suggests unsettled 
periods possible day three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Feb      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Feb     0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values 
26 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Localised variable depressions observed Equatorial latitudes 
during local day. Variable enhancements /depressions observed 
N/Central Aus latitudes during local day. Expect mostly normal 
HF conditions next three days but variable depressions possible 
at times Equatorial/Aus regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A0.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 439 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:   109000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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