[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 February 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Feb             23 Feb             24 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. The present 
coronal hole wind stream appears to be in decline. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   11123321
      Darwin               5   11122212
      Townsville          10   22233322
      Learmonth            6   11123320
      Camden               7   11123321
      Canberra             8   11133321
      Hobart               6   11123311
      Casey(Ant)          10   3--23321
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   2331 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Feb     5    Quiet 
23 Feb     4    Quiet 
24 Feb     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was generally quiet. There was 
an unsettled period around the mid part of the UT day following 
a sustained period of mildly negative bias in solar wind Bz component.
Expect mosty quiet conditions next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Feb     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Feb     5    near predicted monthly values 
23 Feb     0    near predicted monthly values 
24 Feb    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
COMMENT: Localised variable depressions observed N/Central Aus 
latitudes during local day. Spread-F conditions at times S Aus 
region. Occasionally intense sporadic-E observed local
afternoon/evening at some low-latitude stations. Variable 
depressions possible Equatorial/Aus regions next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A0.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: 540 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   131000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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