[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 February 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Feb             14 Feb             15 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. Solar wind speeds
continue to be elevated due to a coronal hole solar wind stream.
Solar wind speeds are expected to remain elevated, decreasing on 15th. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Mostly quiet to
unsettled with isolated active periods observed at some stations. 

Estimated Indices 12 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   23233222
      Darwin               9   22233222
      Townsville          13   23333332
      Learmonth           11   22234232
      Camden              10   23233222
      Canberra             9   23233221
      Hobart              12   13334222
      Casey(Ant)          17   3--43333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             17   4324 4322     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Feb    12    Mostly unsettled 
14 Feb    12    Mostly unsettled 
15 Feb     8    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Isolated active periods and minor storm levels at high 
latitudes possible on 13th and 14th. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
12 Feb    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements at Vanimo
      09-20 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements 04-09
      UT and depressions to 30% at Brisbane and Townsville
      00-02, 11-16 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      mostly 10-16 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs to 30% are possible at times at 
all latitudes. Sporadic E observed at times at all latitudes, 
occasionally obscuring the F region. Sporadic E formation expected 
to continue. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 691 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   241000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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