[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 February 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 10 10:38:59 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Feb             11 Feb             12 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is currently spotless. Solar 
wind speeds increased slightly during the past 6 hours and are 
presently above 420 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to continue 
to increase to mildly elevated levels during 10 February as a 
coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22112122
      Darwin               5   21112122
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            5   12112122
      Camden               5   11113122
      Canberra             4   11013121
      Hobart               4   11113111
      Casey(Ant)          10   33332122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   2011 1012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Feb    15    Mostly unsettled with isolated active periods 
                and storm levels at high latitudes. 
11 Feb    12    Unsettled 
12 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 7 February and 
is current for interval 9-10 February. The anticipated coronal 
hole solar wind stream has not yet impacted Earth and is now 
expected to arrive during 10 February. Active levels are possible 
during 10 February with storm levels possible at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Feb     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Feb   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
11 Feb    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
12 Feb     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 7 February 
and is current for interval 9-10 February. Sporadic-E and/or 
Spread-F conditions were observed at times at some of the Aus/NZ 
region stations during the past 24 hours. Sporadic-E and/or Spread-F 
are again expected at times across the Aus/NZ region for 10 February. 
The anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity did not eventuate 
during 9 February and HF conditions remained mostly normal. MUF 
depressions of 10-20% are possible at times during 10 February 
with the anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity. Mostly 
near predicted monthly values are otherwise expected. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 414 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    40800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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