[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 December 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 28 10:07:56 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Dec             29 Dec             30 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
The solar wind is presently at normal levels and is expected 
to increase on 30 December due to a recurrent coronal hole. LASCO 
C3 imagery showed a weak expulsion of material from the north-east 
limb of the sun first noted at 0542UT 27 December, should not 
be geoeffective. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               2   11101102
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            4   21112111
      Camden               3   12101111
      Canberra             1   10001111
      Hobart               2   11101111
      Casey(Ant)           8   23322212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               9   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   1000 0000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Dec     2    Quiet 
29 Dec     2    Quiet 
30 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected for the next two days. 
Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels 
on 30 December due to an increase in the solar wind speed. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Dec   -28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Dec   -25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
29 Dec   -25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
30 Dec   -25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 25 December 
and is current for interval 26-28 December. Expect depressions 
of 10 to 30% most likely at local night for equatorial and northern 
Australian regions. Isolated cases of sporadic E noted at most 
stations. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 404 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    51600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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