[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 November 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 1 10:06:21 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Dec             02 Dec             03 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Very low solar activity over the last 24 hours. The 
visible solar disk is spotless. Solar wind speed slow (< 400km/s) 
and IMF relatively stable. Similar conditions expected 01 Dec. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 30 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111110
      Darwin               2   11111101
      Townsville           6   2223--10
      Learmonth            3   11112210
      Camden               2   10111111
      Canberra             1   10111100
      Hobart               1   01111100
      Casey(Ant)           7   23-22221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             3   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0011 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Dec     2    Quiet 
02 Dec     1    Quiet 
03 Dec     1    Quiet 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day (30 
Nov). Quiet geomagnetic conditions expected next three days (01-03 
Dec). 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Nov   -37

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Dec   -30    depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
02 Dec   -30    depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
03 Dec   -25    depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on 29 November 
and is current for interval 30 November to 2 December. Depressed 
ionospheric conditions at all latitudes, expected to continue 
due to very low solar activity. Sporadic E observed at Southern 
Australian stations overnight. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 426 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    52200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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