[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 August 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 15 09:27:59 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless and the solar wind is at
approximately 420 km/s, normal for this period in the solar cycle.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field dipped southward
to -5nT early in the UT day (14 August), otherwise, from 0430 UT on
was mainly northward at +2nT. Expect very low solar activity for the
next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 23212011
Darwin 4 22112011
Townsville 7 23222122
Learmonth 3 22122000
Camden 3 13211000
Canberra 2 1-202001
Hobart 4 23212000
Casey(Ant) 8 33322111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 2211 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Aug 4 Quiet
16 Aug 3 Quiet
17 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet over the last 24 hours,
other than a slight increase in geomagnetic activity early in
the UT day, due the Bz component of the interplanetary field
turning southward between 0100-0430 UT (14 August). Expect quiet
conditions for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Aug -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Aug 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Aug 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Aug 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were mostly normal over the UT
day with slight depressions at the equatorial/North Australia
region due to low solar activity. Expect these conditions to
prevai over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 471 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 75800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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