[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 August 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 10 09:07:28 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. The solar wind has increased
from 400 km/s to 650 km/s over the last 24 hours. The solar wind
will most likely remain at this level for 10-11 August. The Bz
component of the intermagnetic field fluctuated between +20/-10
nT over the last 24 hours, however mostly northward.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Aug : A K
Australian Region 14 33322334
Darwin 13 33322333
Townsville 14 33323333
Learmonth 16 34322343
Camden 13 23322334
Canberra 14 23323334
Hobart 14 23323334
Casey(Ant) 17 34422334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 91 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1100 0213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Aug 20 active
11 Aug 16 active
12 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect the geomagnetic activity to remain unsettled
to active for 10-11 August due to elevated solar wind speed resulting
from a recurrent coronal hole. If the Bz component of the magnetic
field goes southward for an extended period of time (>3 hours)
expect isolated periods of activity at minor storm levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
11 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: At mid to high latitudes on 10-11 August HF usable
frequencies may be unstable due to ionospheric disturbances
associated with the geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Aug -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed -10% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed 10% during local day.
Enhanced 10% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed 10% during local day.
Enhanced 10% during local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Aug -10 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30% possible.
11 Aug 0 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30% possible.
12 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: During the next two days (10-11 August) expect the
Equatorial/North Australian regions to have slightly depressed
to normal HF conditions. Also expect the South Australian/Antarctica
regions to have mildly depressed HF conditions due to geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 39400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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