[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 April 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Apr             29 Apr             30 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours, 
expected to continue next 3 days. The partial halo CME associated 
with the small B3 Xray flare of 26/1400UT is expected to impact 
late 29 Apr. A small coronal hole should move into geoeffective 
position on 30 Apr. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 27 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22331411
      Darwin               -   --------
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth            7   2-------
      Camden               7   12231311
      Canberra             7   12231311
      Hobart               8   12331311
      Casey(Ant)          17   333325-2
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Apr : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10   2223 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Apr     5    Quiet 
29 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet-Unsettled over the UT 
day. Expect mostly Quiet conditions 28 Apr. A glancing blow from 
the CME of 26/1400UT may increase geomagnetic activity late on 
29 Apr and into 30 Apr. A small coronal hole should also move 
into geoeffective position early on 30 Apr. Mostly Unsettled 
conditions expected from late 29 and into 30 Apr with isolated 
Active periods 30 Apr. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Apr     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Apr     0    near predicted monthly values 
29 Apr     0    Near predicted monthly values 
30 Apr    10    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal and MUFs near predicted 
monthly values over the UT day. These conditions are expected 
to continue 28 Apr. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09   (very high fluence)  

Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Apr
Speed: 483 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    71400 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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