[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 April 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 3 10:38:57 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain mostly at very
low levels for the next three days, with the very small chance
of isolated C-class flares. Solar winds speeds are expected to
remain low for 3 April and then increase late in the UT day of
4 April and into 5 April due to the anticipated arrival of a
coronal hole solar wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Darwin 3 21000022
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 1 10100001
Camden 1 10100001
Canberra 0 10000001
Hobart 1 011100--
Casey(Ant) 5 23210111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1220 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Apr 5 Quiet
04 Apr 12 Mostly quiet with active to minor storm levels
possible late in the UT day.
05 Apr 18 Mostly unsettled to active with storm levels
possible at high latitudes.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 1 April and
is current for interval 4-6 April. Mostly quiet levels are expected
for 3 April. Isolated active to minor storm periods are possible
late in the UT day of 4 April and into 5 April due to the anticipated
arrival of a coronal hole solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Apr 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values to
enhanced by 20% at times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Apr 20 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Apr 20 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Apr 15 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal to
slightly enhanced for the Aus/NZ region over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+09 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:30%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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