[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 28 09:52:46 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Sep 29 Sep 30 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind was steady at around 400km/s from 0000UT to 1100UT
when a transient structure in the solar wind was observed and
it began to increase to be 550km/s at the time of this report.
The solar wind speed is expected to stay at elevated levels over
the next 24 hours with the anticipated arrival of the high speed
solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) increased
in magnitude from 1100UT after the transient incident and had
a 10nT southward excursion between 1420UT to 1540UT. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days,
with no active regions currently on disk.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1052UT
on 27 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 27 Sep : A K
Australian Region 12 11122533
Darwin 11 11122532
Townsville 16 22232543
Learmonth 19 11132643
Camden 10 10121532
Canberra 12 20112533
Hobart 12 11121533
Casey(Ant) 11 22222433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 2100 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Sep 12 Unsettled
29 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
30 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Minor Storm geomagnetic conditions observed
over the last 24 hours. Minor Storm levels were brought on by
the transient structure first observed in the solar wind at 1100UT.
Mostly Unsettled conditions are expected for the next 24 hours
with possible isolated Active periods due to the arrival of a
high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. Unsettled
to Active conditions expected for 29Sep-30Sep.
A weak (15nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1153UT on 27 Sep, and a weak (23nT) impulse was observed at
1626UT on 27 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
30 Sep Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-poor
COMMENT: Minor depressed MUFs for low latitudes and some enhancements
for high latitudes observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly normal
HF conditions for mid latitudes. Similar conditions expected
over the next 24 hours with posible enhancements for mid to high
latitudes. Depressed MUFs likely for all regions for 29Sep-30Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Sep -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Sep 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
29 Sep 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
30 Sep 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed periods observed for Equatorial/Northern AUS
regions during local night. Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions
had mostly normal ionospheric support. Mostly normal conditions
expected for the next 24 hours for all regions with possible
enhancements for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions. Depressed
conditions expected for mid to high latitude regions from 29Sep-30Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 469 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 54500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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