[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 September 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 26 09:46:49 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep:  66/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Sep             27 Sep             28 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind remains elevated, but is declining slowly from 600km/s 
at 0000UT to be 500km/s at the time of this report. Solar wind 
speed is expected to decline for the next 2 days with an expected 
increase on 28Sep due to a new coronal hole then being in
geoeffective position. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-2nT
over UT day. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low
levels for the next 3 days, with no active regions currently
on disk. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21211122
      Darwin               5   22211122
      Townsville           8   22222232
      Learmonth            6   21220232
      Camden               5   21211122
      Canberra             4   21111122
      Hobart               5   21212122
      Casey(Ant)          10   3--21233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              11   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   3421 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Sep     6    Quiet 
27 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Sep    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Similar conditions expected for the next 2 days. An 
increase in activity is expected on 28Sep due to a new high speed 
solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Sep      Fair-normal    Normal-fair    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Sep      Fair-normal    Normal-fair    Fair-normal   
27 Sep      Fair-normal    Normal-fair    Fair-normal   
28 Sep      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Poor-fair     
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions and possible depressed 
MUFs may be observed at most locations for the next 2 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Sep    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Sep     0    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
27 Sep     0    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
28 Sep     5    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressed periods observed for Northern AUS regions 
during local day and night. Equatorial regions experienced overnight 
depressions. Southern AUS/NZ regions experienced depressed periods 
during local day. Disturbed conditions and isolated enhancements 
for Antarctic Regions. Similar conditions expected for the next 
2 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 662 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   170000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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